Monday, January 10, 2011

Selling Dominates the Market


It was a terrible open to the new week as Nifty tumbled more than 150 points. There was no let up in selling momentum and there was all round selling pressure. Breadth was extremely poor as selling spread across almost every sector. Worst hit were the usual ones like Realty, banking and Autos while Capital Goods heavyweights too suffered sharp sell offs. Both L&T and Bhel were worst impacted as both saw huge institutional selling. FIIs have turned heavy sellers and despite some support from DIIs stocks continue to tumble. Banking heavyweights that looked like finding some support on Friday as well as during the morning sessions, lost ground as the day progressed and Bankex lost over 3%. Some of the worst performers were Praj, HDIL, Sintex, United Spirits, Renuka, Bajaj Hind, Syndicate bank, Rolta, Adani Ent., Alok, LIC Hsg, Aban, Havells, B.Chini, Apollo Tyres and Onmobile,all losing over 5% each. Gainers were difficult to spot and only a few like ACC, Infosys and Dabur managed to stay in the green.

Nifty has lost over 300 points in two trading sessions and 5700-5720 is being put to test again. It had held twice in past two months but the severity and the momentum of the fall suggests that we may not be third time lucky. There could be some technical rebound from around 5700 but overall pattern doesn’t inspire much confidence. There is usually a one-sided move when FIIs turn heavy sellers and the rebounds are usually short lived. Same pattern could be unfolding right now as despite heavily oversold indicators Nifty and heavyweight stocks have not managed any tradable rebound. These oversold indicators could help market to see some relief rally soon. We believe that a rebound is likely from around 5675-5700 levels. But these rebounds would be difficult to trade as the overall direction remains down. It would still be prudent to stay out and let the market stabilize, whenever that happens.

Text Box: Bottoming markets can go no where for very long periods of time. To avoid tying up your money in a dead market, wait until there is a catalyst to change the market direction. – Jim RogersNifty finds immediate support around 5675-5690 and resistance is likely around 5840 and then around 5885-5910.

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