Markets On A Roll

It has been amazing week for India….markets were on a roll and Indian Cricket team has been on a roll too. Sensex continued to march northwards breaking all resistances while Indian cricketers moved past all resistances to lift the World Cup after a gap of 28 years. Well done, India and Congrats to Dhoni and team! Meanwhile, Nifty was up 3% for the week as it moved past 5800. Banks helped the indices earlier in the week while IT stocks lifted it towards the later half of the week. Markets have rallied almost 10% in last two weeks as FIIs have again turned positive on Indian markets. Although markets have moved past all resistances during past 10 days and that too without much sweat, it seems that indices could consolidate around current levels as small and mid caps do the catching up. This phenomenon was in play even on Friday as mid caps rallied sharply while mainline indices remained almost unchanged.  Next week could also see stock specific moves than indices or large caps. Auto and Cement counters might react to the monthly sales figures. IT stocks have rallied ahead of quarterly numbers and now must consolidate before the results season is kicked off by Infosys numbers.

Nifty has resistance around 5900 while support is seen around 5750 and then around 5680.

Selling Dominates the Market

It was a terrible open to the new week as Nifty tumbled more than 150 points. There was no let up in selling momentum and there was all round selling pressure. Breadth was extremely poor as selling spread across almost every sector. Worst hit were the usual ones like Realty, banking and Autos while Capital Goods heavyweights too suffered sharp sell offs. Both L&T and Bhel were worst impacted as both saw huge institutional selling. FIIs have turned heavy sellers and despite some support from DIIs stocks continue to tumble. Banking heavyweights that looked like finding some support on Friday as well as during the morning sessions, lost ground as the day progressed and Bankex lost over 3%. Some of the worst performers were Praj, HDIL, Sintex, United Spirits, Renuka, Bajaj Hind, Syndicate bank, Rolta, Adani Ent., Alok, LIC Hsg, Aban, Havells, B.Chini, Apollo Tyres and Onmobile,all losing over 5% each. Gainers were difficult to spot and only a few like ACC, Infosys and Dabur managed to stay in the green.

Nifty has lost over 300 points in two trading sessions and 5700-5720 is being put to test again. It had held twice in past two months but the severity and the momentum of the fall suggests that we may not be third time lucky. There could be some technical rebound from around 5700 but overall pattern doesn’t inspire much confidence. There is usually a one-sided move when FIIs turn heavy sellers and the rebounds are usually short lived. Same pattern could be unfolding right now as despite heavily oversold indicators Nifty and heavyweight stocks have not managed any tradable rebound. These oversold indicators could help market to see some relief rally soon. We believe that a rebound is likely from around 5675-5700 levels. But these rebounds would be difficult to trade as the overall direction remains down. It would still be prudent to stay out and let the market stabilize, whenever that happens.

Nifty finds immediate support around 5675-5690 and resistance is likely around 5840 and then around 5885-5910.