Action Replay!!

Nothing much happened as far as Nifty movement was concerned as it traded around 5900 for most part of the session. It was almost a repeat of yesterday’s session as index heavyweights witnessed churning while momentum was concentrated within the non-index mid caps. Fertilizer stocks were in focus mid session as sudden burst of activity lifted most of these stocks. Chambal was up almost 9% on heavy volumes while others like NFCL, RCF and Tata Chem too gained significantly. The gainers list was almost completely made up of mid caps and included stocks like India Hotels, India Info, IVRCL Infra, Unitech, GMR Infra, ABG Ship, Tulip, Biocon, Hotel Leela, Triveni, Srei Infra, MLL, Aban and LITL. Cairn continued to lose ground as uncertainity hits its takeover by Vedanta. Sesa Goa too lost ground after gaining sharply over past 3 sessions. Some of the other losers for the day were Onmobile, NTPC, ONGC, OFSS, Bhushan Steel, TCS, Ultratech and APIL. Overall, the undercurrent remained positive despite a minor negative tick in the frontline indices.

Nifty continues to trade around 5900 and its been 4 sessions now that Nifty has remained in a tight range around 5900. We might see some movement either ways in a day or two as narrow range is most likely to be followed by expansion in this range. Dip below 5850 could mean a minor breakdown to around 5750-5770 while sustained trades past 5930-40 could mean a continuation of the uptrend to around 6050-6080. Meanwhile mid caps continue to make hay. GMR Infra broke out above Rs 42.50 and could be headed towards Rs 48-49. HPCL is showing positive technical pattern and could target Rs 385-390 over next few sessions. Tata Chem ( above 361) and HDFC could also seek higher levels. Sugar stocks are witnessing positive buildup and decent upside is likely in counters like Renuka, Balrampur and Baja Hind.

Nifty has support around 5840-50 and then around 5770 while fresh upside momentum is likely above 5935.

Mid Caps Join The Party

Market encountered some profit taking at higher levels as Nifty saw intraday dip to around 5850. But, strong momentum helped indices to recover all its intraday losses as Nifty bounced back to close above 5900. The mid caps and small caps extended their rally by one more session. Banking heavyweights led the dip earlier in the day as stocks like HDFC Bank, Axis Bank and ICICI witnessed some selling pressure at higher levels. But, the mid cap banking names attracted strong trading interest as stocks like Vijaya bank, Andhra bank, Uco Bank, Dena Bank, Syndicate Bank, IOB an Indian Bank moved up sharply on good volumes. In fact, the list of gainers was made up of mainly the mid cap counters. Onmobile extended its gains further as it surged almost 11%. Some other top gainers were Alok Ind, Patel Engg, Sesa Goa, Bajaj Hind, Moser Baer, Jindal SW Holding, Mundra Port and Tulip. HUL, M&M, DLF and Havells were amongst day’s top losers. Overall, the undercurrent was positive despite slight negative undertone in Nifty. Even Nifty did well to claw its way back above 5900.

There was some intraday hiccup in the ongoing up move as Nifty lost almost 50 points mid session. But strong buying in stocks like TCS, Tata Motors and metal heavyweights helped indices to erase all losses towards the close. Mid caps are beginning to join the party as traders get more confident about the upmove. Mid cap banks that look good for decent upside are Syndicate Bank, Indian Bank, Dena Bank, IOB and Allahabad Bank. JSW Steel has given a breakout on daily charts and is likely to target Rs 1040-1050. Others that have positive patterns are IVRCL Infra, PFC( above 254), L&T, Tata Motors and REC( above 261).

Nifty has support around 5830-40 and then around 5770 while some resistance is around 5950-65.

Realty And Banking Lead The Way At the Markets

It was a steady day at the bourses as Nifty traded above 5500 for majority of the session. Decent showing was seen in almost all sectors with Realty and banking leading the way. Unitech was up almost 10% on very good volumes. Many mid caps again hogged the limelight. There was strong buying in stocks like Videocon, Orbit, IBReal, Sobha and Dish TV. Auto and metals also witnessed value buying at lower levels. Ashok Leyland, Hindalco, Welcorp and TVS Motors were the major gainers from these two sectors. Some other prominent gainers were Aban, Karnataka Bank, Pantaloon, IDFC, ABB, Tech mahindra, REC, GVK, Kotak and Yes bank. Some of the yesterday’s gainers met with profit taking and shed some weight. The list includes Tata Com, Lupin, Havells, GAIL and Renuka sugars.

Nifty gained for the third consecutive day which is a rare occurrence in the present volatile scenario. But, that also means that Nifty is now staring at strong resistance zone of around 5540-50. Nifty has not managed a close above 5540 in current month despite few attempts. Nifty has seen base building over last two months and as we did mentioned earlier also, close above 5540 and then a decent follow up could open up 150-200 points upside. Again, banks are the key and Bank Nifty is on the verge of a sharp and strong breakout above 11200. Realty counters are showing interesting patterns and stocks like Sobha, HDIL, Orbit, IB Real and Unitech could see substantial upside once they manage to sustain current levels. Dish TV closed above Rs 64 and could target Rs 71-72 over next few sessions. Ambuja Cement managed to close above 133-135 resistance zone after a gap of about 10 weeks and likely to target 146-149. Banks that have bullish patterns are Kotak, Indusind and Yes Bank.

Nifty now has support around 5460-70 and then around 5420 while strong momentum is likely once Nifty sustains above 5550-65.

A Dull Day For Markets

It was an eventless, dull day of trade as Nifty traded in an extremely narrow band of about 30 points. It was a balancing act as far as Nifty was concerned as for just about every weak stock/sector there was almost an equally strong stock/sector. So we had weakness in Autos, Banks, Capital Goods while strength was seen in
FMCG, Healthcare, IT and metals. But, there were no runaway gainers or losers as stocks too traded without much of a direction. Some mid caps did see some action and volumes and that could be attributed to year end re-jig in portfolios’. Hind Oil and Moser Baer notched up significant gains on above average volumes while Praj attracted huge volumes for second successive day. Some other mid cap gainers were KS Oils, Hexaware, Noida Toll and KFA. Ranbaxy was the biggest index gainer while Tata Motors was the biggest loser. Some other significant losers were Patni, Indian Bank, Tulip, Uco Bank, Axis Bank, Mundra, OBC and BOI. Nifty ended the day almost unchanged at just below 6000.

Nothing much changed technically as it was yet another narrow range day. Still, we have supports around 5940-50 while resistance is at around 6030-45. Volatility has shrunk over past 10-12 sessions as Nifty continues to trade in a listless manner. But, this also suggests that we are witnessing the proverbial lull before the storm and Nifty could see a breakout either way. All long positions must have a Nifty stop loss at below
5930 while Shorts must keep a stop above 6070. Expansion in range with increased volatility is likely soon and may happen over next 3-4 sessions. As of now, Autos and Banks continue to show weakness while IT, Metals and selective pharma counters remain strong. Weakness is likely to persist in mid caps banking stocks in particular.

Nifty has support around 5950-60 and then around 5885-5890 while resistance is likely around 6030 and then 6080.

A Positive Week For Nifty

It was a relatively better week for the markets as Nifty managed to gain around 2%. The sentiments remained brittle and the threat of breakdown loomed throughout the week but IT and metal stocks helped indices to stay in the positive territory. BSE IT index was the biggest gainer as it gained over 5% and moved to new all time high. Both Infosys and TCS also hit new highs were the major gainers of the week. Metals also did well with Tata Steel and Sail gaining over 6%. Banks however remained under pressure as most banking counters posted weekly losses. Auto also came under pressure as Tata Motors was the only Auto major to post decent weekly gains. Mid caps saw some value buying in the later part of the week. RBI left all its policy rates unchanged but did infuse some liquidity in the system by lowering SLR. Inflation remains a threat and RBI might be forced to take a hawkish stance in next policy meet.

Nifty oscillated between 5850 and 5950 in the last two sessions and good news is that 5850 has emerged as a decent short term support. Nifty closed just around 5950 on Thursday and follow up in momentum on Monday could mean that Nifty gives a minor breakout. Sustained trades above 5960 could open up targets of 6070-6080 over next week. Couple of successive closes above 6025 would be technically significant as that would suggest that the correction has indeed ended and market might make another attempt at taking out all time high. The behavior of past two weeks also suggests that it would be different sectors that would lead Nifty to 6300- 6350 again. Oil&Gas, IT and Metals are showing clear leadership capabilities with Infosys, TCS, Tata Steel and RIL beginning to see some momentum. Bank index has strong support around 10850-11000(current value 11424) and may stabilize around current levels but could continue to be volatile. Investors with atleast 6-9 months perspective might look at accumulating stronger banking counters like BOB, Indusind Bank, IDBI, Central Bank, ICICI bank, Federal Bank, KTK Bank and Yes Bank. This is for patient investors and don’t expect instant gratification. Trading momentum is seen in Tisco, TCS, Wipro, Mphasis, Polaris, Ispat, Auro pharma, Bharti, SKumars, Chambal, Tata Chem, Petronet, IGL, GSPL, Hexaware and Renuka.

Nifty has support around 5865-70 and then around 5825-35 while fresh move is likely above 5960.