Profit Booking Sees Nifty Slipping

Profit booking and winding up of positions saw the index slipping up in a slow and steady manner throughout the day. The real damage came in the second half of the trading session when the key support level of 5870 of Nifty futures was broken. The weekend pressure and the truncated next trading week because of two trading holidays saw both investors and traders reducing the exposure in the markets. Nifty now can slowly drop to its first strong support level of 5790-5800 and from there onwards the future course of action will be dictated by the first quarter results. Infosys comes out with its results on 15^th and till then we are of the view that Nifty will be range bound between 5700 and 5900 with a slightly negative bias. Instead of buying and selling breakouts and breakdowns, one should make a strategy of buying supports and selling rallies. Lot of stock specific action will be seen as we now entering the quarterly results season. Since there will be a lot of volatility during this period we would very strongly advise to trade in lower volumes.

Nifty futures have strong support around 5808 and 5767 levels whereas it will face resistance at 5872 and 5899 levels.

Action Replay!!

Nothing much happened as far as Nifty movement was concerned as it traded around 5900 for most part of the session. It was almost a repeat of yesterday’s session as index heavyweights witnessed churning while momentum was concentrated within the non-index mid caps. Fertilizer stocks were in focus mid session as sudden burst of activity lifted most of these stocks. Chambal was up almost 9% on heavy volumes while others like NFCL, RCF and Tata Chem too gained significantly. The gainers list was almost completely made up of mid caps and included stocks like India Hotels, India Info, IVRCL Infra, Unitech, GMR Infra, ABG Ship, Tulip, Biocon, Hotel Leela, Triveni, Srei Infra, MLL, Aban and LITL. Cairn continued to lose ground as uncertainity hits its takeover by Vedanta. Sesa Goa too lost ground after gaining sharply over past 3 sessions. Some of the other losers for the day were Onmobile, NTPC, ONGC, OFSS, Bhushan Steel, TCS, Ultratech and APIL. Overall, the undercurrent remained positive despite a minor negative tick in the frontline indices.

Nifty continues to trade around 5900 and its been 4 sessions now that Nifty has remained in a tight range around 5900. We might see some movement either ways in a day or two as narrow range is most likely to be followed by expansion in this range. Dip below 5850 could mean a minor breakdown to around 5750-5770 while sustained trades past 5930-40 could mean a continuation of the uptrend to around 6050-6080. Meanwhile mid caps continue to make hay. GMR Infra broke out above Rs 42.50 and could be headed towards Rs 48-49. HPCL is showing positive technical pattern and could target Rs 385-390 over next few sessions. Tata Chem ( above 361) and HDFC could also seek higher levels. Sugar stocks are witnessing positive buildup and decent upside is likely in counters like Renuka, Balrampur and Baja Hind.

Nifty has support around 5840-50 and then around 5770 while fresh upside momentum is likely above 5935.

NIFTY at 6000

Nifty opened and traded above 6000 during the early part of session. But again higher levels attracted profit taking as Nifty failed to make any significant progress beyond 6020. Profit taking gained momentum towards the later half as stocks like RIL, Tata Steel and some banking heavyweights pushed Nifty towards 5950. Some metal and auto stocks recovered towards end to pare Nifty losses to only about 16 points. Banking stocks failed to build on yesterday’s momentum as HDFC Bank, SBI and other banks attracted selling at higher levels. Some of the prominent losers for the day were Sintex, Hexaware, Onmobile, Auro Pharma, Bajaj Hind, Patni, EKC, Maruti, Reliance Infra, Bharat Forge and Wipro. Ispat however attracted buying and emerged as the biggest gainer amongst the F&O counters. Bhart was significant index gainer. Some other gainers were Syndicate Bank, Patel Engg, LIC Hsg, Yes Bank, Vijaya Bank, Core Projects, IFCI and Ranbaxy.

Nifty is at crucial levels as it trades around 6000. Despite today’s hiccup Nifty remains in an uptrend and we believe that it is likely to move higher after a brief consolidation. The immediate support is around 5930-40 while stronger and significant support levels are 5870- 80. Banks could play a significant role in deciding how far Nifty moves as short covering in banking heavyweights might create strong momentum for Nifty. On the other hand, if the short covering fails to materialize in next couple of sessions, it might force longs liquidation and that could put pressure on indices. Clear uptrend is still seen in some Auto counters, metals and  IT heavyweights. As mentioned yesterday clear breakout above 11700 in bank nifty would be critical for Nifty’s momentum. Bharti, Yes bank, Indusind Bank, Hindalco, Cipla and JSPL are looking positive.

Nifty has now immediate support around 5935-45 and then around 5880 while resistance is likely at 6030 and then around 6070-80.

A Positive Week For Nifty

It was a relatively better week for the markets as Nifty managed to gain around 2%. The sentiments remained brittle and the threat of breakdown loomed throughout the week but IT and metal stocks helped indices to stay in the positive territory. BSE IT index was the biggest gainer as it gained over 5% and moved to new all time high. Both Infosys and TCS also hit new highs were the major gainers of the week. Metals also did well with Tata Steel and Sail gaining over 6%. Banks however remained under pressure as most banking counters posted weekly losses. Auto also came under pressure as Tata Motors was the only Auto major to post decent weekly gains. Mid caps saw some value buying in the later part of the week. RBI left all its policy rates unchanged but did infuse some liquidity in the system by lowering SLR. Inflation remains a threat and RBI might be forced to take a hawkish stance in next policy meet.

Nifty oscillated between 5850 and 5950 in the last two sessions and good news is that 5850 has emerged as a decent short term support. Nifty closed just around 5950 on Thursday and follow up in momentum on Monday could mean that Nifty gives a minor breakout. Sustained trades above 5960 could open up targets of 6070-6080 over next week. Couple of successive closes above 6025 would be technically significant as that would suggest that the correction has indeed ended and market might make another attempt at taking out all time high. The behavior of past two weeks also suggests that it would be different sectors that would lead Nifty to 6300- 6350 again. Oil&Gas, IT and Metals are showing clear leadership capabilities with Infosys, TCS, Tata Steel and RIL beginning to see some momentum. Bank index has strong support around 10850-11000(current value 11424) and may stabilize around current levels but could continue to be volatile. Investors with atleast 6-9 months perspective might look at accumulating stronger banking counters like BOB, Indusind Bank, IDBI, Central Bank, ICICI bank, Federal Bank, KTK Bank and Yes Bank. This is for patient investors and don’t expect instant gratification. Trading momentum is seen in Tisco, TCS, Wipro, Mphasis, Polaris, Ispat, Auro pharma, Bharti, SKumars, Chambal, Tata Chem, Petronet, IGL, GSPL, Hexaware and Renuka.

Nifty has support around 5865-70 and then around 5825-35 while fresh move is likely above 5960.

Nifty Breaks The Losing Streak

There was some respite for the bulls as Nifty snapped its losing streak. Bailout package for Ireland and relief for Greece calmed the nerves a bit as far as global sentiments were concerned. Back home it was a nervous day despite some buying in certain key heavyweights like RIL, Bhel and L&T. Realty counters remained under pressure and the rebound seen in some of these was mild and hesitant. Index movement was basically on account of some buying at lower levels in Bharti, RIL and Bhel. BGR Energy was the biggest gainer amongst the F&O counters as it gained almost 22% on record volumes. Few others that found bargain buyers were IRB Infra, Chambal, Adani, Renuka, IFCI, Onmobile, Cairns, Bank of India, APIL and GMR Infra. Core Projects continued to struggle and selling was also seen in Escorts, Reliance Infra, Neyvelli, Welcorp, IVRCL Infra, EKC, Power Grid and RCOM.

Nifty did not make a fresh low and hesitatingly managed to move past 5800. Its real test would be to sustain above 5850-5880 as higher levels could invite fresh selling. The stocks and the sectors that have struggled over last few days continue to look jittery despite having fallen sharply. It needs to be seen whether index as well as the weaker stocks hold their Friday’s lows. IT and Pharma counters are being looked upon as safe havens and the price behaviour also reflects this. So, stocks like Lupin, Sun Pharma, TCS and Infosys are looking good. Bharti has been resilient and could be looked at as a positional trade or investment. Few others that are showing positive tendency are Indusind Bank, IFCI, Ultratech, Voltas, GE Shipping, Renuka Sugars and Auro Pharma.

Nifty has support around 5740-50 and then around 5680-90 while resistance is seen around 5870 and then 5925-30.

The Markets on 09 Nov 2010

It was a typical hangover day as markets re-opened after diwali blast. The energy was missing and that was evident in the index movement. It was lackluster to say the least mostly on account of lack of any substantial activity. There was some profit taking in IT heavyweights as well as OMCs. SBI too witnessed some selling ahead of its numbers. The commodities were at the centrestage as both soft commodity stocks like Sugar as well others like metals witnessed strong buying. Sugar stocks were amongst the biggest gainers of the day while significant gains were seen in TataSteel and Sterlite. Cement stocks continue to move higher and Ambuja cements hogged the limelight by moving to life time highs amidst heavy volumes. Some of the other significant gainers were Can bank, Chambal, HOEC, KFA, Hexaware, Divis Lab, Alok, RPower, IFCI and JP Associates. Losers included Mphasis, Power Grid, GMDC, IGL, Apollo Tyres, IVRCL, HDFC bank and Neyvelli.
 

 Nifty paused for breath just around the previous peak and shed some 40 points at close. The undertone remains bullish and we could be heading towards 6400 in coming sessions. Immediate support to Nifty is seen around 6240 and then around 6210. IFCI has given a fresh breakout above 76 and could be headed to around 85-86 in coming sessions. JP is interestingly poised and sustained trades above 140 could open up strong upside. Sterlite broke out of range of past 6-7 months and is looking good for another 12-15% rise from current levels. Tata Steel is also showing momentum and could be accumulated on dips for target of around Rs 670. Amongst others more upside is seen in Godrej Ind, KTK bank, IDBI, Exide, Triveni , HOEC and Chambal.

 

 Nifty has immediate support around 6260-70 and then around 6215-20 while some resistance is likely around 6420.