Nifty Makes A Smart Beginning For The Week

The week began on a happy note as markets had a steady day. In fact, Sensex as well as Nifty briefly went past the psychological level of 19000 and 5700 respectively. Autos, Capital Goods and Banks had a good day while some profit taking was seen in Healthcare, Metals and  IT stocks. Index heavyweights that helped the indices move higher were Bharti, L&T, IDFC, Tata Motors and HUL. LIC Hsg however hogged the limelight by posting intraday gain of around 8% amidst huge volumes. Some other prominent gainers were Sterlite Tech, GT Offshore, Noida Toll, IDBI, LITL, IVRCL, TVS Motors, IRB, Dena Bank, Vijaya Bank, Sintex, Godrej Ind and Federal Bank. Auribindo Pharma was the biggest loser as it shed more than 6%. Some others that lost were Pantaloon, Piramal Health, Sun Pharma, Core, Jain Irrigations, Suzlon, Unitech and GMDC.

It was fifth successive day of gains for markets as Nifty moved towards 5700. In fact, Nifty has gained around 350 points over last 5 sessions. There could be a brief consolidation/resistance as market grapples with twin psychological resistances of 200DMA as well 5700/19000. 5735-5770 could provide stiff resistance to the uptrend and one need to be careful around these levels as far as long positions in Nifty are concerned. Stock- specific moves could hog the limelight even as indices consolidate/correct. The mid cap banking counters could see action as technically some of these like Andhra Bank, Federal, OBC, Uco and Dena Bank are looking positive. IFCI has given a breakout above 55 and could target Rs 61-62 if it sustains above 55. Auto stocks like Bajaj Auto, TVS, Ecsorts are also showing positive intent. LIC hsg closed at almost 4 months’ high and sustained trades above 215 could take it to around Rs 240-245.

Nifty faces stiff resistance around 5730-5750 while support is seen around 5620-30 and then around 5545-60.

Banking Leads The Way On A Positive Day For Nifty

Market began the day on a positive note and remained positive through out the day as Nifty closed above 5500. Banking stocks led the rally ahead of the RBI policy meet as Bankex rallied over 2% on all round buying in banking stocks. SBI was up over 3% while smart buying was seen in other banking stocks like Central Bank, Canara Bank, ICICI, Axis Bank, Yes bank, Andhra Bank and Union bank. Buoyancy was also there in Auto counters like TVS, Bajaj Auto and Tata Motors. ADA pack remained upbeat as after strong rally in Reliance Cap it was the turn of Reliance Infra to attract strong buying. Even RPower and RCom too moved higher. Some of the other significant gainers were Orchid, Welcorp, Voltas, 3i infotech, REC, Hexaware, Escorts, Exide, Bharat Forge, Opto circuits and GMDC. Mphasis slipped further to almost 18 months’ low. Jain Irrigations, Glaxo, Cummins, Indian Hotels, HUL and Apollo Tyres were some of the other losers.

Nifty continues to trade in a broad range of 5400 and 5550. Despite huge intra day volatility Nifty has neither closed above 5550 nor below 5440 for past 15 days. Trend remains sideways with positive bias and the kind of strength and resilience that our markets have shown in past 2-3 weeks does improve the chances of a positive breakout. Intra day trades above 5570 would be the first indication of a breakout while a firm close above 5550 would further confirm that. Banking stocks have rallied ahead of RBI policy and absence of any negative surprises could propel the Bankex higher. Bank Nifty is on the verge of a sharp breakout and sustained trades above 11100 on Bank Nifty could take it higher to around 11550-11600. Central bank rallied sharply ion strong volumes and has given a breakout above 165. Other banks that look good are Can bank, OBC, Yes Bank and Indusind bank. REC has seen strong volume action over past 3 sessions and may be bottoming out. Sustained trades above 232 could trigger a buy with short term targets of around 255-260 with stop loss placed below 220. Some other counters that look positive are Orchid, Ranbaxy( above 472), Auro Pharma( above 198), Bhushan Steel, LIC Hsg, Havells( above 360) and GMDC.

Nifty has immediate support around 5465-75 and then around 5415-25.

Banks & Capital Goods Push NIfty Up

After hesitating around 5500 for couple of days and even in the early part of session Nifty finally moved decisively past 5500 and shut shop around 5550. Banks and Capital Goods heavyweight helped the bullish cause as stocks like HDFC bank and L&T pushed for higher levels. IDFC, Suzlon, Bharti, HDFC, Tata Steel and M&M were other significant index gainers. The breadth was positive as more sectors and stocks participated in the rally. Some of the prominent gainers were Sobha, Tata Global, Patel Eng, Jain irrigation, Century, IOB, Educomp, Escorts, Tech Mah, Mphasis, LICHsg, IVRCL, Al Bnk and REC. Few that missed the list and eneded up on losers’ list were Unitech, Sun TV, IBReal, Fortis, Auro Pharma, GMR Infra, HCL Tech, Gail and Wipro. 

Nifty managed to stay above 5450 and finally moved higher to close just around 5550.  We have seen around 7% rise in 5 sessions. There is likely to be some resistance around current levels of 5550-75. But, the fact that market held the levels of 5450 and consolidated around 5500 for couple of sessions suggests that after a brief correction/resistance Nifty could move higher to challenge the next crucial levels of around 5625-40.  Banks continue to lead and that is good news for bulls. HDFC bank has seen a nice up move and could move further to around 2220-30 before experiencing some resistance. SBI has more headroom as it could target 2830-40 and then 2910-30 in coming sessions. It finds significant support at lower levels around 2730 and then 2685-90. LIC has given a breakout on daily charts and could be headed higher to Rs 215 and even Rs 240. Rs 188-193 becomes a strong support level in the short term. Others that are looking good are HDFC( above 653), Indusind Bank, Allahabad Bank, Andhra bank( above 152), ABG ship and L&T.

Nifty has immediate support around 5470-85 while immediate resistance is just around 5560-75 and then around 5620-30.

Nifty Bounces Back and How!

After a long time did we see strongly up trending day as Nifty not only managed to sustain the positive gap, it also built on the gains as the day progressed. Nifty galloped more than 150 points and closed at the highest point of the day. All round buying was see as most sectors finished the day with sharp gains. Banks rallied sharply for the second successive and Capital Goods sector too saw solid gains. L&T was the biggest gainer amongst the index heavyweights. Some of the big movers for the day were United Spirits, PTC, TVS Motors, Tech Mah, Educomp, Apollo Tyres, Jet, IVRCL Infra, Balrampur Chini, GMR Infra, HDIL, Opto, Havells, JP Associates, Welcorp, KFA, Bajaj Hind, Suzlon, BGR Energy, Jindal SAW and KTK bank. Breadth was extremely positive and for a change it was difficult to spot losers though some pressure was seen in RIL, DLF and Rcom. 

Such strong and sharp rebound has been witnessed for the first time since Nifty started its southward journey from the levels of 6180-6200 in the first week of January. In the two days Nifty has bounced back almost 300 points from the intra day lows of Friday. Nifty is likely to face resistance around 5510-25 and could retreat from around these levels. Most of the stocks that have seen sharp rebounds are approaching decent resistance levels and one needs to be a bit cautious in taking long positions in these. Certain stocks that could still see higher levels are Welspun Corp, HDFC bank( to around 2145-2160), Sesa Goa, TCS and REC.

Nifty has immediate support around 5370-80 and then around 5310-25 while key resistance is likely around 5510-25.

Market Volatility Continues

It was yet another volatile session like yesterday but the outcome was much better. Markets reacted adversely to the dismal IIP data but then recovered yet again from around 5700 to stage a remarkable recovery. It was more or less across the board recovery but the interest rate sensitive sectors were the ones with strongest rebound. Banks moved up smartly as did the Auto stocks. Even the beleaguered Realty sector too witnessed a decent rebound. Nifty rallied almost 170 points (almost 3%) from the day’s low. Biggest gains were seen in Suzlon, Orchid, Renuka, Titan, Praj, Sterlite, Bata, Unitech, Alok and HOEC. Capital Goods and OMCs however remained under pressure and were amongst the day’s losers.

Nifty tested 5700 twice in last two sessions and on both occasions a smart recovery was witnessed.  By closing above 5840 market has raised the probability of carrying the rebound further to around 5950-5980. Volatility might still persist as market reacts to fundamental factors like inflation data and infosys numbers. Banks, as mentioned yesterday should continue to lead the rebound and more upside is likely in banking heavyweights followed by some other banking mid caps. The Vedanta group stocks, sterlite, Sesa and Hind Zinc are looking much better technically then Tata Steel and even Hindalco. Sesa might see a strong breakout above 345. Amongst Autos M&M has a better technical structure and could move to around 775. Some others that might see more upside are Praj, IDBI( above 154), Central bank( above 170), IOB ( above 137), HDFC ( above 685), IFCI and Union bank.

Nifty finds immediate support around 5810 and then around 5760-70 while some resistance is likely around 5910-25.

A Volatile Day For Nifty

It was an extremely volatile day of trade as Nifty fluctuated wildly, particularly in the last 45 minutes of trade. Nifty dropped almost 100 points to slip below 5700 and then recovered all its losses in the last 15-20 minutes. Banks saw some short covering and were amongst the first ones to recover. The large banks in particular saw some buying at lower levels and helped the indices to stage some comeback. SBI, Axis, ICICI, Indusind, Yes Bank and PNB were amongst the prominent gainers. Some metal counters were also in demand and gains were seen in Hindalco, Sesa Goa and Hind Zinc. JSW Steel however was under immense pressure as it lost over 5%. RIL and most realty counters were also under pressure. Some of the prominent losers were Unitech, GMR Infra, HDIL, Orbit, Orchid, Ispat and Suzlon. IT heavyweights too witnessed some profit taking ahead of Infy’s results on 13^th Jan.

Nifty traded around 5800 for major part of the session before witnessing extreme volatility in last 45 minutes. Nifty bounced back smartly and swiftly from just under 5700. The day’s trading pattern suggests that we may have hit at least a temporary bottom around 5690-5700. Banks could lead a sustainable rebound that might see Nifty move to around 5900-5930 over next 3-4 sessions. Bank Nifty is also finding some support around 10700 and might stage a tradable recovery. It could move to around 11300-11400. Banks have fallen between 25-40% over last 5-6 weeks and might recover 8-12% in this rebound. But, this should still be treated as technical rebound only and one should use this rebound to lighten positions. Some stocks that could see some upside are Sesa Goa, Hindalco (to around 240), Bharti, BOB, SBI, Yes Bank, ICICI bank, REC, Praj and M&M. Any long trades taken in these counters should have a stop loss just below today’s lows.

Nifty finds immediate support around 5730-40 and then around 5685-90 while move past 5845 could take Nifty to around 5925-30.

Positive Global Cues Fail To Prop Up Markets

Markets failed to respond to the positive global cues as local factors dominated the proceedings. Food inflation came in at a high of more than 18% and that largely spooked the marketmen. The interest rate sensitives that were already under pressure further bore the brunt on fears of impending RBI action. Banks, Realty and Autos continued to lose ground on sustained selling. SBI and ICICI bank fell to almost 4 months’ low. Bajaj Autos and Tata Motors led the decline in Auto stocks. Fertiliser stocks expectedly reacted negatively to the postponement of Urea policy and were amongst the leading losers for the day. Chambal and NFCL lost more than 7% each. Some other names on the losers’ list were BGR Energy, Escorts, Ultratech Cements, Praj, Ambuja, TVS Motors, EKC, Unitech, HOEC, Dish TV, BOB, Bombay Dyeing, JSW Steel and Nagarjuna construction. IT heavyweights did provide some support to the indices as did RIL. Even some banks also managed to buck the overall negative trend and posted some gains. Some prominent gainers were Jain Irrigation, KTK Bank, Sun Pharma, Ind Hotels, Jet, Hindalco( new high), TCS, IRB, Petronet and Bharti.

Nifty continued to slide and severely tested the support at 6030-6040 and barely managed to close above this zone.  Market has retraced around 33% of the rally from recent lows of 5720 and there is a high probability that it would find some support around current levels. Banks have been under pressure for almost 6 weeks now and current down leg could be the last one before a sustainable support and rebound is seen in most banking counters. This might coincide with the expected hike in interest rates by RBI. What this means as a trader is that one should be prepared to close shorts and perhaps go long in banking stocks once the hike is announced.  Some other stocks that look good for next few sessions are Ind Hotels, Hindalco, Petronet, IRB( above 234), Bharti, RIL, Tata Steel and NCC.

Nifty has immediate support around 6025-30 and then around 5980 while res is around 6085-6100.

Weakness Persists in Banks and Autos

The corrective move gathered momentum on further weakness in interest rate sensitive sectors like banks, realty and Autos. Bankex shed more than 2% as banking counters capitulated further. ICICI bank , HDFC bank and SBI continued to slide downwards as did other smaller banking counters. Auto stocks were also under a bearish spell as 2-wheelers led the decline. Bajaj Auto and Hero Honda lost close to 4% each. FMCG turned out to be the best sector for the days as both ITC and HUL managed to close in the green. RIL was up for better part of the day but shed all its gains as higher levels attracted profit taking. Jindal SAW was the biggest gainer amongst the F&O counters as it gained almost 7% on extremely healthy volumes. Some other that bucked the overall negative trend were Mundra, Piramal Health, Jain Irrigations, HCL Tech, Sesa Goa, Gail, Asian Paints and Tata Power. Nifty slipped below 6100 and closed around 6080.

Nifty is likely to find support around 6025-6040 and its highly probable that we might trade between 6000 and 6150 for next 7-10 sessions. Weakness persists in banking and Autos while strength remains in Metal, IT, FMCG and Pharma. Banking has consistently underperformed for past 4-5 weeks now and some more downside cannot be ruled out completely. BankNifty that is trading around 11300 has short term support around 10800-10900., while stiff resistance is likely around 11600. Autos are also looking weak and in fact technical patterns of Auto majors is a bigger worry than banking counters. Bajaj Auto, Maruti, Ashok Leyland and even Tata Motors are looking weak. On the other hand, IT heavyweights continue to look good and more upside is likely in TCS, Wipro and HCL Tech. Some correction was seen in Tata Steel but it remains in an uptrend and stock could rebound from around current levels. HUL is sustaining above 320 and could target Rs 345-350 over next 2-3 weeks.

Nifty has immediate support around 6030-40 and then around 5980.