Banking Leads The Way On A Positive Day For Nifty

Market began the day on a positive note and remained positive through out the day as Nifty closed above 5500. Banking stocks led the rally ahead of the RBI policy meet as Bankex rallied over 2% on all round buying in banking stocks. SBI was up over 3% while smart buying was seen in other banking stocks like Central Bank, Canara Bank, ICICI, Axis Bank, Yes bank, Andhra Bank and Union bank. Buoyancy was also there in Auto counters like TVS, Bajaj Auto and Tata Motors. ADA pack remained upbeat as after strong rally in Reliance Cap it was the turn of Reliance Infra to attract strong buying. Even RPower and RCom too moved higher. Some of the other significant gainers were Orchid, Welcorp, Voltas, 3i infotech, REC, Hexaware, Escorts, Exide, Bharat Forge, Opto circuits and GMDC. Mphasis slipped further to almost 18 months’ low. Jain Irrigations, Glaxo, Cummins, Indian Hotels, HUL and Apollo Tyres were some of the other losers.

Nifty continues to trade in a broad range of 5400 and 5550. Despite huge intra day volatility Nifty has neither closed above 5550 nor below 5440 for past 15 days. Trend remains sideways with positive bias and the kind of strength and resilience that our markets have shown in past 2-3 weeks does improve the chances of a positive breakout. Intra day trades above 5570 would be the first indication of a breakout while a firm close above 5550 would further confirm that. Banking stocks have rallied ahead of RBI policy and absence of any negative surprises could propel the Bankex higher. Bank Nifty is on the verge of a sharp breakout and sustained trades above 11100 on Bank Nifty could take it higher to around 11550-11600. Central bank rallied sharply ion strong volumes and has given a breakout above 165. Other banks that look good are Can bank, OBC, Yes Bank and Indusind bank. REC has seen strong volume action over past 3 sessions and may be bottoming out. Sustained trades above 232 could trigger a buy with short term targets of around 255-260 with stop loss placed below 220. Some other counters that look positive are Orchid, Ranbaxy( above 472), Auro Pharma( above 198), Bhushan Steel, LIC Hsg, Havells( above 360) and GMDC.

Nifty has immediate support around 5465-75 and then around 5415-25.

A Difficult Trading Day

The two day winning streak was halted as market saw some selling in select banking stocks because of weak global cues. The West Asia crisis saw further escalation and crude continues to trouble to market and downgrading of Spain also played a small role in the bearishness. The market edged lower in early trade as Asian stocks fell on escalating fighting in Libya. The market recovered after hitting a fresh intraday low in morning trade. An intraday recovery in afternoon trade proved short-lived with the market soon losing ground again in mid-afternoon trade as European stocks fell. The market once again came off lows at the fag end of the trading session. Banking stocks dropped ahead of a monetary policy review from the central bank next week. India's largest private sector bank by net profit ICICI Bank lost 1.87% and India's second largest private sector bank by net profit HDFC Bank fell 0.16%. India's largest bank by net profit and branch network State Bank of India shed 1.63%. Stocks like Reliance Capital, APIL, ABB and BHEL were the few stocks which were on the gainers list.

Today was a very difficult trading day as movements were very choppy. Tomorrow however, we expect the market to gain some momentum and hence the probability of it being a trended day is on the higher side.  The critical levels for the Nifty futures on the upside would be 5525 and 5460 on the lower side. Trade on the short side if the support is broken and on the long side if the resistance is broken on the upside.

Immediate supports for Nifty futures are 5460 and 5420/5395 and the resistance lies at 5525 and 5548 and 5580.

Banking Stocks Make Hay As Nifty Consolidates

Markets opened on a flat note and after a small decline of 40 odd points in Nifty in the first two hours it bounced back smartly to cross the crucial resistance level of 5500 in the second half. However, it witnessed profit booking around 5500 levels and finally managed to close at a respectable 5481 levels. From the low of  5177 made on 11^th Feb, Nifty has rallied to an intraday high of 5506.50 ( recovery of 329 points). Since the recovery has been too swift and sharp, Nifty might consolidate between 5400 and 5550 levels for some time before takes any fresh directional move. Banking Stocks especially the likes of SBI, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank and Bank of Baroda were the ones which appreciated the most during this rally. Reliance showed a lot of strength in today’s trading and now if it is able to trade above Rs.950, then it will help the recovery to gain further steam as it has the highest weightage in the Nifty. ADAG stocks were in limelight as Reliance Capital and Reliance Infra saw huge volumes. Capital good sector stocks like BHEL and L&T saw selling right from the morning and both of them lost around 2% each.

We expect Nifty to trade in the 5400-5550 band for some time and stock specific action will be more pronounced during this period. One should be prepared to trade both sides of the market for the next 1-2 trading sessions but till budget we are of the view that the market is likely to have a positive bias.

Markets Show Positivity Ahead of Credit Policy

Markets opened on a strong note primarily because better than expected results from SBI and managed to hold the gains as ICICI too posted impressive numbers. Banking stocks like Bank of Baroda, HDFC Bank, PNB and Yes Bank too saw strong buying because of improved sentiment in the banking sector. Reliance was slightly subdued because it could not beat the street estimates. The market breadth, indicating the health of the market, was strong. On BSE, 1,701 shares advanced while 1,174 shares declined. A total of 103 shares remained unchanged. Tata Steel rallied impressively and closed on a strong note. Market’s response to tomorrow’s credit policy will be extremely critical as the strength of banking stocks is extremely important for the market to rally further. BHEL was surprisingly strong and L&T’s strong closing also played a small role in boosting the sentiment of the market.

Spot Nifty has strong support at 5694 and 5674 levels whereas it will face resistance around 5790 and 5835 levels. We feel that the market has the potential to rally to around 5835 levels but for that tomorrow’s credit policy should not disappoint the market.

Markets on 25 Nov 10 - Midcap Stocks Have No Takers

Markets opened on a slightly positive note, rallied a bit, managed to remain steady till afternoon but later it gave way as the selling pressure of the expiry day was very heavy. Among the banking stocks PNB , Axis Bank and Bank of India were the big losers. LIC Housing Finance which was the big loser yesterday opened on a negative note and made a low of Rs.945 but managed to buck the trend and rallied smartly to an intraday high of Rs.1113.50 and finally closed at Rs.1053.80 with very minor losses. Infosys, HDFC Bank, Bajaj Auto, TCS, Hero Honda and HDFC were the major gainers and it was primarily Infosys and Bharti which helped the index close around 5800 levels. 
 

The biggest casualty was in the midcap stocks where there were no buyers and as a result the breadth was extremely poor. We are of the view that the corporate loan scandal to a very large extent has been discounted as market feels that this is not a systematic failure. The massive fall in the market to a very large extent can be attributed to the expiry of the derivative segment where rollover did not take place because of lack of confidence in the uptrend.

 

Other stocks which managed to buck the trend were Lupin, Indusind Bank, Bata India, Ultratech Cement, ACC and GE Shipping. These are the stocks which should be bought if the market remains steady tomorrow.

Nifty will face strong support at 5785 and 5750 and will face strong resistance around 5840 and 5885 levels.